Skip to content

The Mother Tree

As of Sep 8, 2026
Data & Method

Scenario

Adjust the forces that move the projection. Only Modelled figures respond.

Tariff on Mexican pecans0%ModelledModelledProjected or mocked to fill a gap, with the assumption named
Source
Scenario input, Signal Theory demand model
Ref
scenario
Note
Set by the viewer. Moves projected series only; Live and Measured figures never change.

Raises the landed cost of imports from Mexico, which lifts the shelf price of pecans and shifts retailer sourcing toward domestic supply.

Hurricane season severityBrushModelledModelledProjected or mocked to fill a gap, with the assumption named
Source
Scenario input, Signal Theory demand model
Ref
scenario
Note
Set by the viewer. Moves projected series only; Live and Measured figures never change.

Storm damage to orchards in Georgia, Texas and New Mexico tightens supply for years, since a replanted orchard takes five to ten years to bear fully.

Fertilizer cost index100ModelledModelledProjected or mocked to fill a gap, with the assumption named
Source
Scenario input, Signal Theory demand model
Ref
scenario
Note
Set by the viewer. Moves projected series only; Live and Measured figures never change.

100 is the fertilizer materials price index at the start of the projection, rebased to today; moving it changes input costs relative to today. Higher input costs squeeze grower margins and push the crop price up.

Retailer own-brand pushModerateModelledModelledProjected or mocked to fill a gap, with the assumption named
Source
Scenario input, Signal Theory demand model
Ref
scenario
Note
Set by the viewer. Moves projected series only; Live and Measured figures never change.

Retailers that source pecans directly push their own label on shelf and at sampling, taking space from national brands and the category message.

Scenario inputs are saved in this browser only. Baseline is no tariff, a brush storm season, fertilizer at 100 (today's level) and moderate own-brand push.